Insights

Carsten Brzeski’s blog

Carsten Brzeski’s blog

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany

Carsten Brzeski, as Chief Economist, briefly and concisely comments on current economic developments and events. His focal points are the economic developments in Germany and Europe, decisions made by the central banks and international financial market trends.


ECB: Draghi’s final “as long as it takes”

12. September 2019

The ECB has put all instruments on the table in what could have been the final solo attempt to restore growth and inflation in the Eurozone

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ECB: The big bang

12. September 2019

Mario Draghi delivers his final "whatever it takes" with a big package of monetary stimulus

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ECB preview: Worries of an ageing superhero

09. September 2019

The final showdown between Mario Draghi and the hawks should end with monetary fireworks

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Germany: Finally some positive data

09. September 2019

At least some relief for the economy, as exports increased in July. The outlook, however, has not improved

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Germany: Industrial slump continues

06. September 2019

Disappointing industrial production data adds to the case for policy action

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Germany: No relief for battered industry

05. September 2019

Order book deflation turns into industrial slump. Latest industrial data is another disappointment

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Germany: Landslide relief

02. September 2019

Regional elections in Saxony and Brandenburg brought another big gain for Germany's Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party. Both partners of the federal government lost electoral support but are likely to remain in charge in the state government

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Germany: Weaker inflation supports case for ECB action

29. August 2019

Low August inflation in Germany bolsters the case for a new round of monetary easing at the ECB's September meeting 

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Germany: The domestic protection shield is wearing out

29. August 2019

In unadjusted terms, this is the worst August performance of the German labour market since reunification and the poor performance is adding to recession fears

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Germany: Some light with lots of shade

27. August 2019

Details of 2Q GDP data show some bright spots but the short-term outlook for the economy still points to stagnation

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Germany: Cold winds from the East

27. August 2019

On Sunday, two regional state elections in Germany could lead to new troubles for the federal government in Berlin

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Germany: Still free fallin’

26. August 2019

More bad news out of Germany. Another horrible Ifo reading weakens hopes for a rebound of the economy from its own strength

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The ECB is concerned

22. August 2019

That is the main message from the just-released minutes of ECB's July meeting which stress the central bank's growing concerns about both the growth and inflation outlook. A 20bp deposit rate cut, a small tiering system, a repricing of the TLTROs and a restart of QE with some 30 billion euro per month could be Mario Draghi’s last hoorah 

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Germany: The end of a golden decade

14. August 2019

The economy shrank by 0.1% QoQ in the second quarter. Inevitably, the discussion about fiscal stimulus will get more heated

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German recession fears, should we blame the Chinese car market?

13. August 2019

The current slowdown of the German economy is closely linked to problems in the automotive sector. What role does China play in all of this?

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Germany: Trade closes disappointing quarter

09. August 2019

June trade data did not bring any relief, making a small contraction in the economy more likely in the second quarter

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Germany: Industrial slump continues

07. August 2019

Industrial slump worsens in June, boding ill for GDP growth in 2Q

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Germany: Some relief from industrial orders

06. August 2019

New orders rebound on strong demand from non-eurozone countries, indicating that German industry's biggest problem might not be the global slowdown

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Germany: Domestic stronghold starts to crumble

31. Juli 2019

The labour market is losing steam again, indicating that external woes are gradually leaving their mark on the domestic economy

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Germany: Inflation adds to arguments for ECB action in September

30. Juli 2019

Lots of data noise coming out of Germany but inflation, as measured by European standards, has dropped, providing further arguments for ECB action in September

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ECB: Preparing the big September bang - part II

25. Juli 2019

During the press conference, Mario Draghi added some flavour to the announced language changes. Not everyone at the ECB seems to be ready for a big September package yet, but this should not stop the ECB from acting

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ECB: Preparing the big September bang

25. Juli 2019

The last talk before the ECB will have to walk the walk. It now increasingly looks as if the September meeting will not just bring a single measure but rather a whole package

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Germany: Bad, worse, Ifo

25. Juli 2019

Germans are losing their optimism. The drop in the Ifo index increases the risk of a negative sentiment loop

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ECB preview: One final talk before walking the walk

18. Juli 2019

It's a very close call but we expect the European Central Bank to change its forward guidance next week and effectively pre-announce a package of new measures at the September meeting

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How long can the ECB talk the talk without walking the walk?

11. Juli 2019

Minutes of the June meeting stress the European Central Bank's determination to deliver more

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Germany: Weak signs of life

08. Juli 2019

A bit of relief. Both industrial production and exports sent tentative signs of life in May. The upside: the German economy is not falling off a cliff. The downside: the relief is too feeble to justify any optimism

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Germany: Order book deflation continues

05. Juli 2019

The great order deflation continues and wraps up a week to forget for the German economy.

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Europe: Breakthrough with many surprises

02. Juli 2019

The outgoing president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, just announced a breakthrough in the seemingly endless negotiations between European leaders on how to fill the European top jobs. Europe never fails to surprise

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Germany: Inflation remains leisurely

27. Juni 2019

Stable but low inflation in Germany strengthens the case for new ECB action

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The eurozone’s Japanification - more to come

24. Juni 2019

With the eurozone economy stuck in a low growth, low inflation and low rates environment, it's really hard not to make 'Japanification' comparisons. If we're honest, the eurozone is probably already in the thick of it, which means rates are likely to remain lower for longer and every new crisis or recession will bring the bloc closer to more Japanification

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Germany: Still stumbling

24. Juni 2019

Another drop in the Ifo index tells two stories: one of solid current growth and another one of nagging uncertainties

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Euro Summit: The endless road to kick the can down

21. Juni 2019

This week’s summit of European leaders’ summit was anything but productive. There was little progress on the game of ‘musical chairs’ to fill the top jobs and there seemed to be little appetite to talk about further eurozone integration

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Emperor Draghi’s not naked, the ECB has corporates (and banks) in CSPP2

19. Juni 2019

Mario Draghi’s hints at possible new monetary stimulus has got the market thinking: Has he still got the magic, or is he just an emperor trying to dress in new clothes? To us it’s clear: He does have a new tool and the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme 2 could just be around the corner

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Eurozone: Still under construction

19. Juni 2019

The June Summit of European government leaders this week offers yet another opportunity to make progress on eurozone integration. In our view, the EU must face two fundamental questions

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ECB president succession: Nationality matters…sometimes

18. Juni 2019

Our analysis of eurozone central bankers’ communication shows nationality matters, but not really in the ECB’s board. And once the appointment is made, the national bias won't be as significant as many ECB watchers think these days

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ECB: About bazookas and water pistols

13. Juni 2019

At last week’s meeting in Vilnius, ECB president Mario Draghi sent a strong signal that the ECB was only one small economic slip away from new stimulus. But what could the ECB still do?

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Germany: Horrible start to the second quarter

07. Juni 2019

Disappointing April data from industrial production and trade suggest that the latest ECB’s dovishness is justified

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ECB: Dovish vehemence from Vilnius

06. Juni 2019

Dovishness all over. With today’s meeting, the European Central Bank is, in our view, only a small economic slip away from a rate cut

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ECB: As dovish as it can be without cutting rates

06. Juni 2019

The European central bank extends forward guidance on rates and announces details of the third series of TLTROs

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Germany: Industrial outlook gets better but not good, yet

06. Juni 2019

Increasing industrial orders show that not all is bad, even though the outlook for industry in the Eurozone's largest economy remains shaky.

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ECB: Under pressure

03. Juni 2019

With the economy facing new uncertainties and markets speculating about additional easing measures, the European Central Bank will be under pressure at this week’s meeting

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Germany: More turbulent political times ahead

03. Juni 2019

The aftershocks of the European elections and regional votes in Bremen continue to affect German politics. Our tail risk of snap elections has increased

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Germany: Inflation - still an Easter hangover

31. Mai 2019

The sharp drop in German headline inflation will further support the ECB's current easing bias.

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European Parliament Elections: Key takeaways

27. Mai 2019

A huge democratic exercise over four days has come to a close. Here are our first key takeaways, based on the last official projections as of 11:15 pm CET

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Germany: Double Elections Day

27. Mai 2019

The results of the double election day could bring new tensions in the federal government but should not destabilize the economy

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Germany: The hard and soft data conundrum

23. Mai 2019

Strong growth, dropping Ifo and increasing PMI. How to read the latest data cacophony out of Germany

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Germany: Return of the living dead - part two

23. Mai 2019

The just released components of 1Q GDP growth confirm strong domestic demand and suggest that most one-off disruptions from last year might finally be over

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European elections: Four key battlegrounds for markets

22. Mai 2019

Elections to the European parliament take place over the next four days. Concerns are high that the centre ground continues to fragment and that populists succeed in sufficient numbers to derail further European integration. In this article we focus on four key battlegrounds to measure the march of the populists and assess its impact on FX and bond markets

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Germany: Bremen matters

21. Mai 2019

The final countdown has started. Four more days and the time has come. Another make-it-or-break-it election on 26 May. The fate of the German coalition depends on it. The fate of Europe, too. No, we're not talking about the European elections but state elections in Bremen

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Germany: Return of the living dead?

14. Mai 2019

Strong German growth in the first quarter suggests that any panic about the state of the eurozone's largest economy was overdone. However, there is still no room or time for complacency

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Germany: Time to turn more optimistic?

08. Mai 2019

Strong industrial production data confirms our view of a positive surprise in next week's GDP data

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Germany: First blemish in biggest stronghold

30. April 2019

Strong labour market data show first tentative signs of weakening

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European Parliament Elections: Final four weeks

29. April 2019

What to watch in the last four weeks ahead of the elections, held between 23 and 26 May

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Germany: More FDR for Germany

29. April 2019

Even hawkish German economists are finally discussing changes to the debt brake but, unfortunately, a lot more needs to happen before this discussion enters the political arena. Perhaps Germany needs a lesson from Franklin D Roosevelt...

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Germany: Confusion as a sign of stabilisation

24. April 2019

Diverging signals from the main leading indicators in Germany underline the ongoing dichotomy between services and manufacturing but in our view are also a sign of stabilisation

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Germany: First green shoots

16. April 2019

Spotting turning points in the economy remains a very difficult task. Today's ZEW index adds to tentative evidence that a gradual rebound of the German economy is in the making

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ECB: No Spring break but a study break

10. April 2019

After the March action, the ECB took it a bit easier today. The ECB first wants to spend more time in the study room before announcing details of the new TLTROs or even presenting measures to bring relief to the banks

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Germany: Still struggling

08. April 2019

February trade data did not bring any relief to the German economy. But wait, it can only get better

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Germany: Head scratching continues

05. April 2019

A positive headline number, further weakening manufacturing data. What to make of this morning's German industrial data?

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ECB: Here we are now, enter-tier us

04. April 2019

While tiering currently looks like the next big thing for the ECB, the minutes of the March meeting support our view that next week’s ECB meeting will not yet deliver any final decisions

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Germany: No green shoots

04. April 2019

Awful new order data suggests that German industry is still suffering from Brexit woes and global uncertainties

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Germany: Recession insurance

29. März 2019

The labour market remains the best possible insurance against recession fears, even though very tentative signs of a cooling have emerged

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Germany: Higher inflation - delayed, derailed or simply debunked?

28. März 2019

German headline inflation drops to its lowest level since April 2018 and undermines the ECB's hope for structurally higher inflation.

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ECB: Never a dull moment

28. März 2019

The latest comments from members of the European Central Bank have suddenly given rise to rate cut fantasies. Don’t get carried away

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Germany: Some balm for the soul

25. März 2019

Finally, after six consecutive drops, the Ifo index just sent a tentative signal of relief for the German economy

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Germany: Is this what bottoming out looks like?

11. März 2019

Another batch of disappointing industrial data adds to global doom but perhaps volatile data is just a sign of bottoming out

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ECB: Dovish gamble

07. März 2019

With new TLTROs and a change to the forward guidance, the European Central Bank (ECB) today tried to get ahead of the curve. The measures demonstrate the ECB’s determination but will do little to tackle the drivers of the current slowdown

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ECB: Panic in Frankfurt?

07. März 2019

A sign of panic or an attempt to get ahead of the curve? The European Central Bank surprised almost everyone by announcing a new series of measures, trying to avoid an unwarranted tightening of its monetary stance

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The Eurozone’s ‘Japanification’

07. März 2019

The prospect of some kind of ‘Japanification’ of the eurozone supports our view that interest rates will remain lower for much longer

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The ECB’s dashboard and implications for asset markets

06. März 2019

The cautious ECB tone this Thursday in the currently USD-supportive environment suggests a modest downside to EUR/USD. We reiterate our 1- to 3-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.1200. The upside to bund yields remains limited

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Germany: Domestically strong

01. März 2019

Still defying increased external uncertainties, the labour market remains the stronghold of the German economy

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Germany: No forward guidance (from inflation)

01. März 2019

Subdued inflation in Germany leaves the ECB slightly baffled, supporting the case to buy more time, but defintely good news for consumers.

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ECB preview: Trying not to get lost in transition

28. Februar 2019

Confidence indicators are still falling but there is some bottoming out in sight. With that in mind, the ECB next week will have to balance between pre-emptive action, which could be perceived as panic, and a relaxed wait-and-see attitude, which could be perceived as complacency

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Germany: Cold shower

22. Februar 2019

After some encouraging signals from confidence indicators earlier this week, the Ifo index just poured cold water on them

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Germany: Still blocked by cars

22. Februar 2019

The GDP components provide interesting insights: the German economy is in a better shape than its current reputation.

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ECB: To twitch or not to twitch?

22. Februar 2019

The minutes of the January meeting illustrate the ECB's increasing concerns. However, today's encouraging confidence indicators should prevent the central bank from twitching at the March meeting

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Germany: Between free fall and stabilisation

19. Februar 2019

There still is hope but not a lot. A rising ZEW index, combined with a still falling current assessment component, suggest the pessimism will end, eventually

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Germany: The black eye just got blacker

14. Februar 2019

The year 2018, which started off with expectations of the best growth performance since 2011, ended with a big stinker.

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Germany: Helping hand from an old friend

08. Februar 2019

December trade data shows that there are still signs of life in the eurozone’s largest economy

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Germany: Industrial slowdown continues

06. Februar 2019

Industrial orders took another nosedive, indicating that any rebound in industrial activity will be slow and sluggish. But there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

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Germany: Stubbornly strong

31. Januar 2019

Rain or shine, the labour market remains a stronghold of the German economy, putting a clear floor under any recession fears

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Germany: Retreat and relief

31. Januar 2019

German headline inflation slows to the lowest level since February 2018 on the back of lower energy prices, and further softening is in the offing. With consumer confidence close to all-time-highs, lower inflation makes consumers the best recession-fighting instrument that the German economy has

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Germany: Another shocker in the Ifo

25. Januar 2019

The German Ifo takes another nosedive, boding ill for any quick rebound of the German economy

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ECB meeting: Increased alertness

24. Januar 2019

The European Central Bank has woken up to the new reality of increased uncertainty, and become more dovish in the process. At the same time, the bank has indirectly suggested that it's as much in the dark about the growth outlook as anyone else

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ECB preview: Sleepwalkers or simply cool dudes?

21. Januar 2019

Thursday’s ECB meeting will probably be low on action but high on controversial debates and challenging questions

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Germany: Maybe it’s time (to let the old ways die)

18. Januar 2019

From stellar growth to the brink of a recession within less than a year. Germany needs more than good luck to return to the European pole position

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Germany: Getting away with one black eye

15. Januar 2019

The German economy had its weakest performance in five years but seems to have avoided a technical recession

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ECB minutes confirm driving manually (again)

11. Januar 2019

The just-released minutes of the ECB’s December meeting illustrate both the ECB’s confidence in the strength of the Eurozone economy as well as a good amount of caution but marks the transition from autopilot to driving manually

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Germany: No relief from exports

09. Januar 2019

After this week’s disappointing industrial data, latest trade data just did little to ease fears of a stagnating economy.

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Germany: Give me an “r”

08. Januar 2019

Disappointing November production data gives rise to fears of a technical recession

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Germany: Mixed bag of data

07. Januar 2019

A downward correction after a long positive stretch and an upward correction after a long negative stretch: the German economy is still in search of clear guidance

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Germany: A nice mess!

18. Dezember 2018

2018 ends with another disappointment for the German economy.

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ECB: From autopilot to driving by sight

14. Dezember 2018

The end of net quantitative easing by year-end marks the end of the ECB's autopilot. Now the central bank is fully back to being data-dependent 

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Eurozone: It’s the end of QE as we know it (and it is here)

14. Dezember 2018

The European Central Bank just announced that monthly net QE purchase will be reduced to zero by the end of the month

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Germany: Some relief from exports

10. Dezember 2018

A small rebound in exports illustrates that not all is doom and gloom in the German economy. However, the rebound is too small for us to become overly optimistic right now

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Germany: Not so far from the shallows

07. Dezember 2018

A new star was not born. Instead, another disappointing drop in German industrial production shows that industry is not so far from the shallows any more.

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Eurozone: It’s the end of QE as we know it…

06. Dezember 2018

…and we will be fine as the European Central Bank is gradually shelving the controversial bond-buying programme

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Germany: Final of a political casting show

04. Dezember 2018

On Friday, 1001 delegates will vote on the next chairman or chairwoman of the CDU, marking the first end of the Merkel era 

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Eurozone: Filibuster on Eurozone reforms continues

04. Dezember 2018

Another red-eye meeting of Eurozone finance ministers shows how difficult it is to agree on further Eurozone reforms. Only another existential crisis would speed up the reform efforts - something even the most Europhile experts should not really hope for

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Eurozone 2019: A pessimist’s view

01. Dezember 2018

'Eurozone growth could even exceed already high expectations'; that's what we wrote this time last year. 12 months on, the piece hasn't exactly aged well. Perhaps we should adopt a different approach this time around

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Germany: Headline inflation retreats…

29. November 2018

...but not as much as it should have, given the almost unprecedented divergence between crude oil and gasoline prices in most parts of Germany

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Germany: Still groping in the dark

26. November 2018

The latest Ifo index just somewhat undermines hopes for a swift and strong rebound of the German economy in the final quarter of the year

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Germany: Hit by cars

23. November 2018

Details of 3Q growth provide further evidence that the economy was simply hit by too many one-off factors

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European politics in 2019: United in even more diversity

21. November 2018

In European politics, the year 2017 was the year of hope for new momentum towards further integration; temporarily a real Europhoria. 2018 was the year of a disappointing and disillusioning return to reality (and a de facto standstill). Will 2019 now be the climax of disappointments or another turnaround?

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Eurozone: Signs of life from the French-German axis

19. November 2018

Just when you thought everything was blocked in the saga on Eurozone reforms, the French-German axis returns with a proposal for a Eurozone budget

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ECB: Auto pilot with a slight dovish bias

16. November 2018

In one of his rare public speeches, ECB president Mario Draghi just confirmed the bank's determination to end quantitative easing, but opened the door for a long period of low interest rates

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Germany: Wake-up call

14. November 2018

First it was politics, now it is the economy. The worst economic performance since 1Q 2013 is another wake-up call for the eurozone’s largest economy to take action 

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The Eurozone economy: Between optimism and pessimism

13. November 2018

There is currently a lot of speculation about the future path of the global economy. Is the best behind us and are fears about an imminent and protracted slowdown justified? For the Eurozone, an old saying by Ben Bernanke rings a bell: recoveries don’t die of old age. However, they can definitely lose momentum

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Germany: More disappointments

08. November 2018

September trade data adds to recent evidence of the worst quarterly performance for the German economy since 2015

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Germany: Too little too late

07. November 2018

Slightly positive September industrial production data came probably too late to avoid a disappointing performance of the entire economy in the third quarter

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Germany: Industrial orders see sign of life

06. November 2018

It is definitely not top of mind in Germany today, where headlines are still dominated by political turbulence, but this morning’s data just sent a tentative sign of life. Don’t give up on German industry, yet

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Germany: Inflation at ten-year-high

31. Oktober 2018

Headline inflation climbed to a ten-year-high in October but underlying inflationary pressure remains subdued.

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Germany: Merkel Dämmerung

30. Oktober 2018

Chancellor Angela Merkel just announced the end of her political career. The next federal elections in the autumn of 2021, at the latest, will mark the end of the Merkel era

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Germany: Political fragmentation continues

29. Oktober 2018

Two weeks after the Bavarian elections, voters in the state of Hesse confirmed the ongoing process of political fragmentation and a transition to a post-Merkel era - making German national politics even more complicated 

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ECB: Not sexy but highly effective

26. Oktober 2018

The ECB remains determined to continue its chosen path to bring net QE to an end in December

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Germany: Sliding but not falling

25. Oktober 2018

Another drop in the Ifo index is a reason for caution but not for concern. The current assessment component is still pointing to solid growth at the start of the final quarter of the year

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Euro Summit: “no sense of urgency but it’s urgent”

18. Oktober 2018

Eurozone reform has once again been overshadowed by Brexit. Today’s Euro Summit was no exception. In the last two years, new reforms have been postponed again and again. The sense of urgency is still there, but disagreements among member states still look hard to be bridged before the end of the year

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ECB preview: Ending QE is not the biggest threat

18. Oktober 2018

The Federal Reserve may be President Trump’s “biggest threat” but in the eurozone, tighter ECB policy is way down the list of things to worry about   

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Germany: Political landslide in Bavaria

15. Oktober 2018

At least the opinion polls of the last weeks were right. For the rest, Sunday’s elections in Bavaria will have created a landslide. Not only for Bavaria but probably also for German national politics

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ECB: Auto pilot confirmed

11. Oktober 2018

The minutes of the ECB’s September meeting underline the Governing Council is very comfortable with the autopilot of a gradual quantitative easing tapering

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Germany: Warning - political landslide in Bavaria ahead

09. Oktober 2018

Sunday’s regional elections in Bavaria could become an important milestone, either imminently or in the future

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Germany: Trade is treading water

09. Oktober 2018

August trade data is no game changer. After a disappointing industrial report, trade data brought little relief

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Germany: Headline disappointment but glimmers of hope under surface

08. Oktober 2018

German industrial production dropped for the third month in a row. Under the surface of disappointing headline figures, there are some glimmers of hope

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Germany: Order zigzagging continues

05. Oktober 2018

A decent rebound in August industrial orders supports our view of solid German growth in the second half of the year

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German inflation – still more relative than vigorous

27. September 2018

German inflation at seven-year high but still little evidence of a sustainable increase in underlying inflation

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Germany: More thanks to Jean-Claude Juncker

24. September 2018

German businesses remain unimpressed by ongoing trade tensions, pointing to the continued strength of the economy

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Germany: Late is not too late

20. September 2018

Between the late-cycle and the golden decade, the German economy is experiencing an unusual fluctuation in high-frequency data but the underlying trend remains robust. Could feel a bit like an Indian summer of sorts for a while

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ECB: Sleepwalking to the QE exit

13. September 2018

ECB announces reduction of monthly QE purchases and leaves forward guidance unchanged.

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The ECB’s taper autopilot is still on

13. September 2018

The European Central Bank delivers the first step towards exiting QE; the autopilot's still on and forward guidance on rates remains in place

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The ECB’s Dashboard: Taper auto pilot

10. September 2018

Market volatility, Italian fiscal policies and low core inflation will do little to divert the ECB from its taper plans. The auto pilot, turned on in June, should stay on. The reduction in net QE purchases has been well telegraphed and should not surprise anyone. Look for a limited effect on both FX and bond markets

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Germany: (No) need to panic

06. September 2018

July industrial data continues to disappoint but should only be one of those regular dips and not a start of a severe downswing

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ECB preview: On taper auto pilot

06. September 2018

Market volatility, Italian fiscal policies and low core inflation will do little to divert the ECB from its taper plans. The auto pilot, turned on in June, should stay on. On Thursday, the ECB will in our view deliver the first step of the pre-announced dovish tapering: a reduction of the monthly QE purchases from €30bn to €15bn

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Our September guide to global central banks

05. September 2018

Everything you need to know about central bank policy around the world

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The silver tsunami is almost upon us

30. August 2018

Eurozone growth is being threatened by several structural challenges, not least an ageing population. And that's going to add yet more challenges to numerous economies, not least Germany, Spain and Italy

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Germany: Social delivery

29. August 2018

In its first meeting after the summer break, the German government demonstrated enthusiasm to act and deliver on its social promises, adding more pro-cyclical fiscal stimulus to the economy

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Germany: No hangover as the Ifo bounces back

27. August 2018

A surprisingly strong Ifo index suggests that the German economy is defying geopolitical and trade risks. The growth party is all set to continue.

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Germany: A moment to savour

24. August 2018

The details of German 2Q GDP growth paint another picture of a strong economy on its way to a golden decade

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Germany: Still on track for a golden decade

14. August 2018

Contrary to the national soccer team, the German economy did not have a rude awakening at the start of the summer. Instead, the economy has returned as an outperformer of the Eurozone.

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Germany: Industrial setback in June but Q2 growth on track

07. August 2018

The June drop in industrial production is too small to affect a solid growth performance over the entire second quarter.

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Germany: Cold summer shower

06. August 2018

Disappointing new orders data show tentative signs of trade tensions hitting the German economy, which doesn't bode well for the industrial outlook in the second half of the year

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Germany: Headline inflation backtracks further, core remains low

30. Juli 2018

German inflation data provide little evidence of a sustainable increase in underlying inflation.

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ECB: Get back to the cold drinks, nothing to see here

26. Juli 2018

ECB leaves everything unchanged and confirms main messages from June.

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Germany: A drop in business confidence that almost feels like an increase

25. Juli 2018

Ifo index still points to solid growth but trade war fears continue to weigh on expectations

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ECB preview: The meaning of summer

19. Juli 2018

For next week’s meeting, some ECB veterans might long for the good old days when the bank's summer meeting was held in the form of a teleconference. With little news, ECB President Mario Draghi will simply reiterate the main message of the June meeting

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Eurozone: Exports add to short-term growth optimism

16. Juli 2018

With the third consecutive monthly increase, Eurozone exports suggest continued stable growth in the economy. However, let’s not forget that this was the last relic of a pre-tariff world.

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Eurozone: ECB minutes show broad support for dovish tapering

12. Juli 2018

Strong growth and gradually increasing inflationary pressure comforted the ECB’s June decision to announce a de-facto end of QE

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Eurozone: Soft patch 1 - Start of a severe downswing 0

12. Juli 2018

Rebounding industrial production adds to evidence of a stabilising Eurozone economy

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Germany: Not everyone believes in a German rebound (yet

10. Juli 2018

Another drop in the ZEW index suggests that financial market participants are still concerned about the negative impact from trade tensions on growth.

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Germany: Robust export growth amidst trade tensions

06. Juli 2018

German exports rebounded in May, providing more evidence of a strengthening of the economy in the second quarter.

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Germany: Positive surprises exactly when you need them most

06. Juli 2018

After the national soccer shock, trade war fears and political tensions, at least the German economy is surprising to the upside. This week’s data make it easier to become optimistic again.

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Germany: Finally some positive news

05. Juli 2018

German new orders finally showed some signs of life in May, providing more evidence that the economy could rebound during the second half of the year

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Germany's digital scoreboard

05. Juli 2018

Sound fundamentals, low-interest rates, and record high employment currently bode well for the German economy, but to tackle long-term challenges such as ageing and digitalisation, Germany urgently needs to step up its game, both in terms of investments and structural reforms.

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Eurozone: And it does move

30. Juni 2018

In another nightlong meeting, European leaders agreed on an initial deal to shake up European immigration rules. The meeting must have been too energy-consuming to agree on any eurozone reforms.

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Germany: Headline inflation backtracks, core remains low

28. Juni 2018

Strong consumer confidence and low core inflation are both comfort and concern for the ECB

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Germany: Darkening skies

26. Juni 2018

With six drops in the last seven months, today’s weaker Ifo index adds to concerns about the growth outlook for the German economy.

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Eurozone: Setting and showing limits to the French-German axis

22. Juni 2018

Last night’s meeting of Eurozone finance ministers tried to put up a brave front but also illustrated that there is more disagreement than agreement on how to further integrate the monetary union

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Germany: Merkel sunset postponed

18. Juni 2018

The growing government crisis in Germany got a ceasefire today. However, the pure fact that the interior minister has given the chancellor a kind of ultimatum shows once again how stressed the situation is

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ECB: Solomonic end to QE

14. Juni 2018

With an unprecedented communication twist, the ECB today more or less announced the end of QE. While the real motivation of this step remains unclear in light of increased uncertainty, the door to extend QE into 2019 has not entirely been closed.

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ECB: The anticipated end of QE

14. Juni 2018

Unprecedented style but the ECB just more or less announced the end of QE by the end of the year, while still keeping the door open somewhat.

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Germany: More disappointments

08. Juni 2018

It’s almost like a hang-over which does not want to go away. This morning’s macro data suggests that the German economy has had more trouble re-accelerating than previously thought.

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ECB preview: Praet's pivot pirouette

08. Juni 2018

Despite growing uncertainties around the strength of the eurozone recovery, little underlying inflationary pressure and possible further market turmoil, the ECB seems determined to demonstrate its focus on long-term trends. After Praet's remarkable speech, we expect a very exciting meeting on 14 June

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Germany: Another cold shower

07. Juni 2018

German new orders disappoint again in April, casting more shadows on the strength of the recovery.

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Preparing the end of QE?

06. Juni 2018

A rather hawkish speech by ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet this morning provided more evidence that next week’s ECB meeting will see a heated debate on how and when to end QE.

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Navigating Italian political risks: What’s next?

02. Juni 2018

Although a 5SM-League government will be announced later today, we take a step back and outline four potential scenarios from the benign to severe and their implications for markets

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Germany: Surging inflation complicates ECB’s life even more

31. Mai 2018

In the shade of Italian excitement, a whole series of German macro data passed by almost unnoticed this morning. In short, the main message of this batch of data is that a rebound of the economy is in the making but one-off effects have not yet disappeared.

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Germany: Huge sigh of relief

25. Mai 2018

Am unchanged Ifo index finally brings some good news to the Eurozone.

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ECB: Dovish minutes from the April meeting

24. Mai 2018

The minutes of the ECB’s April meeting confirmed that the ECB is in no hurry to change its current monetary policy stance.

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Germany: Stumbling start confirmed

24. Mai 2018

The second estimate of first quarter growth shows that cooling of the economy was driven by trade and government

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ECB pre-preview: New complications on the road to taper

23. Mai 2018

Even though we still have three more weeks to go before the next ECB meeting, recent developments clearly signal doing nothing and buying time in June is the best and most risk-free option

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Germany: Stumbling into 2018

15. Mai 2018

First quarter growth came in at 0.3% QoQ. The expected growth slowdown but no reason to get worried.

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Germany: Move along folks, no downswing to see here

08. Mai 2018

This morning’s macro data brought some relief to the German economy. Rebounding exports and industrial production shows that talk of a downswing were premature. Still, the rebound comes probably too late to avoid the weakest quarterly performance of the economy since 3Q 2016.

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First thoughts on the EU’s budget plans

02. Mai 2018

The European Commission’s proposals for the post-Brexit budget includes interesting and probably somewhat controversial new tools placing pressure on both CEE and Western countries. Getting these proposals through the negotiation process will be anything but easy

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Germany: The Easter Bunny is still haunting inflation

30. April 2018

Germany's inflation data for April provides more evidence that the ECB’s decision on the future of QE could be postponed until after the June meeting.

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Germany: Labour market gives hope in times of concerns

27. April 2018

The strong labour market shows very little sign of a levelling off and is welcome positive news after recent disappointment from Germany.

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Silence is golden – the ECB way

26. April 2018

A somewhat more cautious ECB plays it safe and buys time the least entertaining way. Crunch time will come in June…or July…or…

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Germany: The end of the boom and no one’s noticing?

24. April 2018

Another cold shower from Germany should feed the discussion on soft patch versus the start of a downswing. In our view, the truth is somewhere in the middle, called consolidation.

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April ECB Meeting Crib Sheet: Will Draghi say it best when he says nothing at all?

23. April 2018

It may be a strange ECB meeting for markets on Thursday - one which may see President Mario Draghi say it best when he says nothing at all. Risk-reward, however, favours Euro upside given the less bullish sentiment, more neutral positioning of leveraged funds and extremely high bar for the ECB chief to talk down the currency

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ECB preview: A general repetition no one really needs

18. April 2018

Next week’s ECB meeting will again be one of these meetings that most ECB officials would actually like to skip if they could. It should only be the prelude to the first QE showdown in June

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Germany: More bumps as ZEW drops again

17. April 2018

Another sharp drop in the ZEW index suggests that soft data are rapidly adjusting to weak hard data. That’s the wrong kind of convergence.

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Eurozone: The closing window of opportunity

13. April 2018

Latest reports from Germany show that the so-called window of opportunity to further Eurozone reform is closing quickly. Maybe it's already closed, even before it was really open

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Germany: A start to forget

09. April 2018

Trade data have completed what has been another disappointing month for German industry. It is the weakest start to a new year since 2009. While downside risks have clearly increased, short term prospects for the economy overall are still good.

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Germany: Industrial glitch continues

05. April 2018

Snow, sickness and sentiment levelling off send first signs that buoyant German industrial activity should not be taken for granted.

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Germany: The Easter Bunny strikes back

29. März 2018

The small uptick in headline inflation offers support for ECB hawks. But only at first glance.

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German Ifo: Struck by Trump

22. März 2018

Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, has continued its recent levelling off, sending a strong signal that recent trade war threats are the main worry of German businesses.

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Germany: Weak ZEW index signals vigilance

20. März 2018

Strong current assessment and weak expectations are a good reminder that strong German growth should not be taken for granted

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ECB: Draghi confirms PPP

14. März 2018

ECB President Mario Draghi offers interesting insights into the bank's current inflation assessment and whether this time is really different.

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Germany: Industrial hibernation

09. März 2018

As so often in recent years, the German industry has taken a longer winter break, with industrial data disappointing at the start of the year.

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Germany: Stuttering industrial start

08. März 2018

German new orders had a horrible start to the new year. The sharp drop by 3.9% month-on-month in January broadly washed out the December surge (+3.8%). On the year, new orders were still up by 8.2%.

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Germany: ‘Yes' or ‘no? What's it gonna be, SPD?

01. März 2018

While Italy votes, financial markets should also have a close eye on German politics on Sunday. In fact, the result of the SPD’s member vote on whether or not to join a coalition with Angela Merkel’s CDU could have a bigger impact on markets and Europe than the Italian elections

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Germany: Inflation, still more wish than reality

27. Februar 2018

Based on the results of six regional states, German headline inflation slowed once again, dropping to 1.4% YoY in February, from 1.6% YoY in January.

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Germany: Confidence set-back

22. Februar 2018

First scratches to the strong German economy as the Ifo drops to lowest level since September 2017.

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European Musical Chairs- an update

14. Februar 2018

Eurozone finance ministers are set to agree on a successor to ECB vice-president Vítor Constâncio. It's the first piece of a big puzzle in the near-total overhaul of the bank's board

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Germany: Solid growth, fragile politics

14. Februar 2018

Strong final quarter shows German economy is powering ahead.

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ECB's Sisyphean task to credibly talk down the euro

12. Februar 2018

Despite recent attempts, we don’t believe the ECB will be able to credibly talk down the euro. We look for more EUR/USD upside in quarters to come, targeting 1.30 this year.

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Germany: Almost at the finish

07. Februar 2018

After another period of overtime, the CDU, CSU and SPD finally agreed on a coalition agreement. It will now be up to the SPD party members to give the final go or stop to the next German government.

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Germany: Orders, wages and politics

06. Februar 2018

German new orders rebounded in December, providing further evidence of the strong industrial recovery. New orders increased by 3.8% MoM, from a 0.1 MoM drop in November revised up from -0.4%).

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Germany: Easing inflation hysteria

31. Januar 2018

A drop in German headline inflation in January suggests that even the ECB’s expectation of higher inflation is currently more wish than reality.

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Germany: Running out of superlatives

25. Januar 2018

The German economy just provided further evidence that an economy can continue booming despite a political impasse.

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Germany: Next step towards a new government

22. Januar 2018

SPD party delegates give green light to start coalition talks but increase pressure on own party leaders to bring home some political star prizes

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Germany: Finally a first step towards a new government

12. Januar 2018

Germany's CDU/CSU and SPD parties have reached an agreement on forming a coalition this morning. It might not be a visionary breakthrough but enough to maintain Germany’s role as strong man of Europe in the coming years.

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Germany: The never-ending boom

11. Januar 2018

The German economy grew by 2.2% (2.5% when adjusted for working days) in 2017. A strong performance by an economy firing on all cylinders.

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Germany: November data confirm strong final quarter performance

09. Januar 2018

Surging industrial data suggest that the German growth party continued in the fourth quarter of 2017.

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Germany: New Year starts with a small disappointment

08. Januar 2018

The first macro data of the year is negative but provides little reason to get concerned. The German growth party is set to continue.

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Germany: Small political setback

19. Dezember 2017

German Ifo index drops in December, suggesting that German businesses surprisingly do seem to care about politics.

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Germany: Weak start to Q4 confirmed

08. Dezember 2017

Weak trade data confirms the industrial sector's sensitivity to vacation and weather effects and is a small reminder that too much partying is not good.

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Germany: Too much party leads to too little production

07. Dezember 2017

Industrial production took another breather in October on the back of yet another long weekend and public holidays.

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Germany: Inflation up but still no signs of overheating

30. November 2017

The small uptick in German headline inflation in November is no sign of overheating but mainly the result of higher oil prices and another vacation period.

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Germany: Did anyone say crisis?

24. November 2017

German businesses party almost as if there were no tomorrow, pushing the Ifo index to another all-time high in November.

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Germany: Economy historically strong, politics completely uncertain

23. November 2017

Strong 3Q growth of the German economy confirmed, while political outlook is completely uncertain.

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Back to square one – German coalition talks collapse

20. November 2017

Likelihood of new elections in Germany has increased as coalition talks failed last night when the liberal FDP walked away from the negotiations.

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Germany: Still flying high

14. November 2017

The golden cycle of the German economy continues, with 3Q GDP growth coming in at 0.8%.

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Germany: Weaker September will not ruin growth party

09. November 2017

Despite weaker industrial data in September, next week’s GDP data should bring another strong reading for the German economy.

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Germany: Industrial setback

06. November 2017

Industrial production took a breather in September but keep your seat belts fastened. The fast ride of the German economy is set to continue.

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German unemployment at lowest since 1990

02. November 2017

Solid as a rock. The strong German labour market remains an important growth engine, but also shows why significant wage increases in the entire Eurozone are still way off.

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German inflation brings comfort for ECB

30. Oktober 2017

While many Germans are enjoying a long weekend due to public holidays, today’s macro data suggest that the economy is in the midst of a goldilocks period.

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Germany: Unbreakable

25. Oktober 2017

Ifo index rebounds in October, suggesting continued strong growth in the German economy.

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Germany: Everyone’s a winner (ING Research Distribution)

16. Oktober 2017

Snap elections in the German state Lower Saxony were called in July when a member of parliament from the Green party changed to the CDU, thereby shattering the one-seat majority of the government coalition between SPD and Greens.

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Germany: Final chapter of strong August

10. Oktober 2017

Strong trade data confirms economic surge after the early summer lull.

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Germany: Summer action continues

09. Oktober 2017

Strong industrial production data provide further evidence that the economy has left summer lull behind and has returned to maximum speed.

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Germany: Summer explosion in new orders

06. Oktober 2017

A strong August new orders reading suggests that industrial activity will remain in a high gear, at least for the remainder of the year.

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Germany: A set-back for the economy (ING Research Distribution)

25. September 2017

Ifo index drops for the second month in a row, suggesting some levelling off in the German economy

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German elections: Bittersweet victory (ING Research Distribution)

25. September 2017

As Merkel celebrates her fourth victory, losses for her party and a difficult coalition building challenge ahead will make this a bittersweet victory

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Germany’s boring elections: Four things to look out for

22. September 2017

With only a few days to go before Germans head to the polls, here are the four things we'll be watching closely on Sunday evening

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Germany: Nine more days

15. September 2017

With nine more days to go, the election campaign is coming to a close. Latest polls suggest complicated coalition talks.

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Germany: Only small rebound in July exports

08. September 2017

Trade data confirms German industry’s summer break but current positive cycle should continue.

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Germany: Still on vacation break

07. September 2017

Industrial production remained flat in July, but should not be a reason for concerns.

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Germany: No game change

04. September 2017

Last night’s one-and-only live debate between Chancellor Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz, leader of the second largest party, was less explosive than the Frankfurt bomb deactivation.

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German inflation brings good news for EC

30. August 2017

Based on the results of six regional states, German headline inflation increased somewhat to 1.8% YoY in August, from 1.7% YoY in July. The fourth consecutive rise of headline inflation. On the month, German prices increased by 0.1% MoM.

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Germany: No signs of weakness

25. August 2017

The Ifo index dropped only marginally in August, confirming the almost breathtaking strength of the German economy.

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Germany: Don't say boring

24. August 2017

With one more month to go, the German election campaign should currently be at its peak…should. The reality is a rather unexciting campaign, characterised by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s high popularity and the inability of all the other parties to initiate an accentuated debate.

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